Hypothesis
A specific, testable statement about what change could improve a KPI. In the process, you typically form 1–3 hypotheses per cycle.
Definition
A specific, testable statement about what change could improve a KPI. In the process, you typically form 1–3 hypotheses per cycle.
More context
A hypothesis links an action to an expected KPI outcome and explains the rationale (“because”). Good hypotheses are specific enough to test in a short cycle and clear enough to be judged by data.
Why it matters
Hypotheses prevent “busy work” and force clarity about what you expect to happen and why.
How to use it
Write 1–3 hypotheses from analysis, define a success metric, then prioritize based on likelihood, resources, and scalability.
Common pitfalls
Vague hypotheses (“improve onboarding”), hypotheses with no measurable KPI, or too many hypotheses per cycle.
Related terms
- Analysis — The first phase of the four-phase process: analyze the current situation and/or learnings from the previous cycle before forming hypotheses.
- Prioritization — The phase where you select what to test next based on likelihood of success, resource intensity (time/money), and scalability.
- KPI (Key Performance Indicator) — A measurable number used to guide decisions and evaluate progress. The first step in the process is choosing a KPI that can be measured periodically.
- Experiment — A test designed to create learning and move a KPI. An “optimal experiment” is tied to OKRs, measurable, learning-focused, and executable within a short cycle (e.g. a week).